Astronomers continue to monitor asteroid 2024 YR4, which was initially considered a potential threat to Earth. However, the latest calculations by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have shown that the probability of impact in 2032 has been reduced to nearly zero. It is expected that the risk will soon be ruled out entirely.
Discovered in December 2023, the asteroid is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in size. Early NASA projections gave it a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth. However, after further observations, the risk was recalculated: NASA now estimates the probability at 1 in 278, while ESA’s assessment is even lower.
Although the threat to Earth has been dismissed, the likelihood of a collision with the Moon has slightly increased—from 0.3% to 1.2%. Despite this, experts are confident that the situation remains under control, and there is no cause for concern. Moreover, further study of 2024 YR4 could provide valuable scientific insights into asteroid motion and dynamics.
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